Sometimes, less is more. That’s not just an overused cliché; it’s a solid handicapping strategy.
Which brings me to my NFL underdog best bets for Week 8: After looking over the oddsboard and crunching the numbers on each matchup, there weren’t a ton of underdogs screaming out “Bet me!”
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So rather than hit you with the usual trio of NFL underdog recommendations, I’ve streamlined it to just two this week.
In both instances, I’m fading home favorites, which actually has been a pretty sound strategy: So far this season, home teams laying points are 24-35-2 ATS, including 6-15-1 ATS the past three weeks.
Here are my two favorite NFL underdogs wagers for Week 8:
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets (-1.5)
A month ago, the Raiders were 3-0, and talking heads from coast to coast were left to ponder the question, “Are the Silver & Black really back?” Four consecutive defeats later, and we have our answer: Nope.
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I certainly learned that the hard way in Week 7, when I backed Las Vegas against the Rams with one of my underdog best bets. Los Angeles jumped out to a 28-3 lead and cruised to a 35-21 win.
It was the third time during their four-game slide that the Raiders failed to defend their home turf. But look at the opponents: Chiefs, Bills and Rams — three of the top Super Bowl contenders entering this season. And Las Vegas put up a legitimate fight against Kansas City (30-27 loss as a five-point underdog) and Buffalo (33-30 loss as a 5.5-point pup).
The other franchise to take down the Raiders this season was New England. The defending AFC champs rolled Las Vegas 45-17 at home in Week 4.
Now the Raiders head back to the East Coast. However, for the first time since Week 3, the opponent is the furthest thing from a Super Bowl contender. Rather, it’s the Jets, who lost 28-25 at home last week to the previously winless Dolphins. The same Dolphins team that arrived in New York having not held a lead all season.
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The Jets, who went off as a 3.5-point favorite against Miami, are now 2-5 this season; 5-19 since the start of last season; and 10-21 since the start of 2024. They’re also now 4-8 SU and ATS in their last dozen games as a favorite.
The Raiders, meanwhile, have cashed in five of seven games this year, including four of six when catching points.
Admittedly, Las Vegas’ defense has been nonexistent the last five weeks, giving up 35, 30, 45, 33 and 35 points. But the Jets have been held under 20 points four times, and their high-water mark came in last week’s loss. The “Gang Green” defense hasn’t exactly picked up the slack, either; four of the last five opponents have put up at least 23 points (including one offense led by Tyson Bagent).
Again, the Raiders just endured a brutal four-game gauntlet. This week, I expect them to look more like the team that opened the season by waxing the Dolphins, Chargers and Saints (the latter two on the road).
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Bet: Raiders +1.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Only one NFL team enters Week 7 without a victory. And only one NFL team enters Week 7 without having covered a single point spread. Lo and behold, it’s the exact same team: the L.A. Chargers, who come out of their bye week at 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS.
There is no sugarcoating it: The Chargers, who entered 2026 favored to make the playoffs for a third straight season, have been an abject disaster. And nobody has been more of a disaster than Justin Herbert.
The Chargers’ quarterback has the second-worst passer rating in the league. He’s thrown three more interceptions (eight) than touchdown passes (five). He’s playing behind an offensive line that has been absolutely ravaged by injuries (which is why he’s been sacked 21 times, tied for third most in the league). And this week, he faces the NFL’s fourth-best pass defense.
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And speaking of defense, thanks in part to Herbert’s generosity with the football, the Chargers are giving up 25.2 PPG. All six opponents have tallied between 22 and 30 points.
So of course I’m taking the points with the Chargers this week (just as I did in their last game, when they got steamrolled 22-6 in Kansas City).
Call it a careless contrarian move. Or a blindfolded dart throw. Or playing the “due” theory. But I know this much: Two weeks ago, the “unstoppable” Rams lost 18-16 at home to the Cardinals as a 12.5-point favorite. And while they looked sharp last week in Las Vegas, the overwhelming preseason Super Bowl favorites are still under .500 and have yet to win consecutive games this year.
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Bet the Los Angeles Chargers to cover the spread at sportsbooks
Also, if you include three playoff contests, the Rams are mired in a 4-8 ATS slump. Not once in those 12 games have they covered the spread in back-to-back weeks.
Meanwhile, in their first two seasons under Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers went 2-0 SU and ATS following a bye. And as pathetic as this franchise has been historically, it has not failed to cover a spread in seven straight games since going 0-7-1 ATS from Weeks 7-14 in … 2001.
Bet: Chargers +6.5
Last week: 1-2
Season: 9-10
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