A big sweep against Missouri last week kept Florida baseball in the hunt for an NCAA Tournament spot, but the Gators need to take a road series against the Mississippi State Bulldogs this weekend to stay on track.
The Bulldogs are just 5-10 against the SEC this season, putting them one spot ahead of the Gators in the conference standings. Both teams should bring their best with hopes of sweeping the series. Mississippi State will have the advantage of playing at home, however. Florida isn’t the best road team this year, and most SEC clubs win more at home.
While pitching has been the strength for MSU, the team’s ERA against the SEC is above 5.00. Florida’s is above 8.00, so expect some high-scoring games this weekend.
Projected Starting Lineup: Florida Gators
| Pos. | Player Name | AVG | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | HR | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Luke Heyman | .304 | .401 | .530 | 115 | 26 | 35 | 7 | 25 |
| 1B | Brendan Lawson | .313 | .445 | .547 | 128 | 26 | 40 | 8 | 41 |
| 2B | Justin Nadeau | .265 | .419 | .398 | 98 | 23 | 26 | 2 | 13 |
| 3B | Bobby Boser | .327 | .424 | .653 | 150 | 45 | 49 | 14 | 42 |
| SS | Colby Shelton | .370 | .440 | .604 | 154 | 32 | 57 | 6 | 30 |
| LF | Blake Cyr | .286 | .390 | .496 | 119 | 27 | 34 | 7 | 20 |
| CF | Hayden Yost | .274 | .379 | .389 | 113 | 22 | 31 | 1 | 20 |
| RF | Ashton Wilson | .222 | .386 | .400 | 45 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 8 |
| DH-L | Brody Donay | .327 | .460 | .682 | 110 | 28 | 36 | 9 | 23 |
| DH-R | Landon Stripling | .250 | .380 | .364 | 88 | 20 | 22 | 2 | 16 |
Probable Starters: Game 1 – Friday (8 p.m. ET)
| Team | Pitcher | Record | ERA |
| FLORIDA | RHP Liam Peterson | 5-2 | 3.63 |
| MISSISSIPPI STATE | LHP Pico Kohn | 4-1 | 3.26 |
NOTES: Liam Peterson is still walking more batters than he’d like — four last week against Missouri — but he’s struck out 13 and only given up five runs over his last two outings. Kevin O’Sullivan would like to see him go a bit deeper in games, but making it through five each of the last two weeks has been good enough. Peterson’s numbers tend to get skewed because of one bad inning per game. Once he eliminates that bad inning, he’ll be the ace Florida hopes for him to be.
Pico Kohn is a top-100 college draft prospect, according to D1Baseball. He sticks to a fastball-slider mix that has a 10 mph difference in velocity, and both are effective and drawing swing and misses. The fastball is among the elite heaters in the game and is in the 100th percentile for in-the-zone whiffs. Florida can strike out a ton if they’re not careful, and it could cost them a game in this series.
Probable Starters: Game 2 – Saturday (8:30 p.m. ET)
| Team | Pitcher | Record | ERA |
| FLORIDA | RHP Aidan King | 4-1 | 2.68 |
| MISSISSIPPI STATE | RHP Evan Siary | 3-2 | 3.91 |
NOTES: Aidan King returned to form last week against Missouri, striking out seven and walking just one in the final inning of a 5.2-frame shutout performance. King is one of the best freshman arms in the nation, and Mississippi State isn’t an elite team at the plate.
Evan Siary is getting the Saturday start for Mississippi State. He’s not a regular starter, per se, but does have four to his name this season. His goal will be to get through Florida’s lineup once and then the bullpen should take over. His numbers are improving — fewer walks and more strikeouts — but stamina remains a question mark, especially against the SEC.
Probable Starters: Game 3 – Sundday (3 p.m. ET)
| Team | Pitcher | Record | ERA |
| FLORIDA | TBA | TBA | TBA |
| MISSISSIPPI STATE | RHP Karson Ligon | 3-4 | 5.13 |
NOTES: Florida is still figuring out who to go with in Game 3 of its weekend series, but Luke McNeillie performed well last week against Missouri. McNeillie gave up just one run on a homer over four innings, and he could get another shot at it this weekend.
Karson Ligon has been up and down as MSU’s third starter, and he has particularly struggled against the SEC. A bounce back over the past couple of weeks will have him confident against the Gators. He’s not a big strikeout guy, but he doesn’t walk a ton of guys either.
Other Players to Watch
The Bulldogs don’t flash a ton of power at the plate, but there are a few sluggers on the team. Sophomore third baseman Ace Reese has 12 homers and 43 RBI this year, and senior Noah Sullivan designated hitter has eight homers and 29 RBI. Both are among the five lineup regulars with an OPS over 1.000.
MSU’s bullpens is strong as well. Four different arms have 10 or more appearances with ERAs of 3.18 or lower, including freshman Ryan McPherson, one of the game’s dominant young arms. Chase Huntgate is the senior leader of that group with a 2.11 ERA over 21.1 innings (13 appearances).
Series History
| OVERALL | 77-52 |
| AT HOME | 34-23 |
| AWAY | 30-25 |
| NEUTRAL | 8-4 |
Follow the Action
FRIDAY (8 p.m. ET)
SATURDAY (8:30 ET)
SUNDAY (3 p.m. ET)
* Watch links go directly to game feed
Predictions
GAME 1: Florida, 8-6
GAME 2: Florida, 5-4
GAME 3: MSU, 8-5
Series prediction: I like Florida to take the series but all three of these games could go either way. Starting pitcher is going to matter a ton here, and Sunday might be a struggle. Florida wins the first two and drops the final game of the series.
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