To the victors go the spoils, and back-to-back-back prime-time games.
The Seahawks took home Super Bowl LX to the “12s,” but after the traditional, banner-raising, opener at home on the first night of the season, it took awhile for the defending champs to get back on one of the NFL’s three prime-time center-stages.
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Once they did, the Seahawks exemplified what makes the NFL — and betting it — so fascinating. On Thursday Night Football in Week 6, Sam Darnold’s two crucial interceptions in a loss to Denver sent the talking heads into a fury about, “what’s wrong with Seattle?”
A week-and-a-half later, on Sunday Night Football, the Seahawks — specifically, the defense — performed about as well as they ever have, shutting down the Chiefs en route to a 20-3 home win, and, just like that, “the champs are back!”
Next up, a Monday-nighter against another prime-time regular — the Bears — and the betting market has bounced back from brief concern to open Seattle at -3.5. Over the course of last week, that line has leveled-off, sitting right on the biggest key number in NFL betting.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 46.5)
What do we mean when we talk about the belief in Seattle returning in the betting market?
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To break it down quantitatively, the Seahawks got to a point at the end of last season and the beginning of this one, where if you gave them a power rating out of 100 (as we do at THE WINDOW), they were rated in the low-70s, among the top teams in the NFL.
After the loss to the Broncos, they were downgraded into the high-60s for last week’s game against the Chiefs, with a closing line of -3 (just a point better than Kansas City plus two points of home-field advantage in Seattle).
Offensively, it remained a struggle, with Sam Darnold connecting with MVP-candidate Jaxon Smith-Njigba for a pair of big catches, one for the key touchdown in a low-scoring game.
Defensively, the Seahawks played the best they had all season, focusing on former teammate, Kenneth Walker — the only concerning weapon in Patrick Mahomes’ arsenal.
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That was enough to shoot the Seahawks back up into the 70s in our estimated market ratings, jumping the Rams and Bills as the No. 1-rated team in the betting market (though not the Super Bowl favorite, because of where they stand behind the 49ers in the NFC West). The toggle between those two ratings means we’ve found the Seahawks’ ceiling in the market.
Caleb Williams is back and in fine form, so the Bears bring a far more dangerous offense to Seattle, and their power rating of 68/100 might have more room to run upward. Especially, if the much-maligned defense can continue to create opportunities for Kyler Gordon (4.0 sacks already from slot-corner, going from 17 to 31 snaps in his first two games this season), and if newly-acquired Jeffery Simmons is the same impact player with the Bears as he has been his whole career with the Titans.
Bet the Chicago Bears to cover the spread at sportsbooks right now
Add in that Seattle will be without offensive tackle Charles Cross and WR Rashid Shaheed, and the defense might need to keep the Bears offense in the single-digits, too. That seems almost impossible for the combo of a healthy Williams and Ben Johnson.
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Bet: Bears +3
Player props
Caleb Williams over 20.5 pass completions (+100, Bet365)
Nothing comes easy against the Seahawks’ defense, but it doesn’t have to, on the way to 21 completions (or more).
As the most recent Super Bowl MVP can attest, running into the Seahawks’ front doesn’t produce much efficiency at all, but the Bears have enough options in the passing game that Chicago will likely have to move the ball in the air in the form of quick throws. If Seattle gets a lead, that will only force the passing urgency from Williams.
Tory Horton longest reception over 14.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
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The Seahawks are desperate for another receiver to provide a threat across from Smith-Njigba. Shaheed was providing something of an occasional deep threat, catching a pass of at least 20 yards in four of his last five games before getting hurt.
With Shaheed out, Horton, who was already creeping close to playing 50% of the snaps the last two games, will get those routes down the field opposite JSN, with Cooper Kupp still manning the underneath.
With the Bears’ safeties occasionally vulnerable deep passes, and Horton’s five receptions on the season creating a lower betting line than you’d see on Shaheed, there’s some value on Horton to capitalize on one good look from one of the better deep-ball throwers in the game.
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Zach Charbonnet under 46.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115, Bet365)
Even before his ACL injury in the playoffs last season, Zach Charbonnet had fewer than 40 rushing yards nine times in the regular season, as he split the carries with Walker. In his absence, Emanuel Wilson has been better than serviceable, and first-round pick, Jadarian Price is expected to come off Injured Reserve on Monday, creating a suddenly crowded backfield for Seattle.
Never a big threat in the passing game, and other options more suited to third-down work, let’s take the under here and see if Charbonnet already emerges as workhorse, against the Bears’ bolstered defensive line.
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – OCTOBER 22: D’Andre Swift #4 of the Chicago Bears runs with the ball against the New England Patriots during a game at Soldier Field on October 22, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois.
(Patrick McDermott via Getty Images)
Anytime TD scorers
D’Andre Swift (-105, DraftKings)
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Kyle Monangai is out for the fourth straight game, and with the perception that the Seahawks defense doesn’t give up touchdowns, there’s the right combination of opportunity for Swift as the focal point (having scored in all three games without Monangai), and a decent price for a featured tailback.
With four catches in each of the last three games, a receiving touchdown is also in play more than usual.
Rome Odunze (+250, FanDuel)
The Bears aren’t without their injuries, as TE Cole Kmet is out too, which means it’s going to be harder to play the Seahawks defense with two-tight end sets.
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Colston Loveland is going to get a ton of attention. Plus, the word is out on the impact of Luther Burden III.
When the Seahawks have been beaten in the red zone, it’s been by big targets, as 6-foot-5 Mike Evans caught seven balls for 113 yards and a touchdown two weeks ago.
Despite 24 catches on the season, 6-3 Rome Odunze is still yet to score, allowing his odds to creep longer and longer (+210 or shorter in four games started by Williams this season), but he should get a red-zone look on Monday night.
Jaxon Smith Njigba (-110, FanDuel)
We probably don’t need to sell anyone on betting Smith-Njigba to do anything, but with touchdowns in five of seven games, that sample size has produced a 71.4% hit rate or implied odds of -250. That would be excessive for a wide receiver, but here’s a list of the best receivers the Bears have faced (and their stats):
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Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker: 13 receptions, 213 yards, 2 TD
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Justin Jefferson: 3 rec., 55 yards (in a rainstorm)
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DeVonta Smith: 6 rec., 65 yards
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Christian Watson and Matthew Golden: 12 rec., 266 yards, 2 TD
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Drake London: 4 rec., 62 yards
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Smith-Njigba is far better than any of those, and none of them have the near 50% production share on their team, as JSN has for Seattle.
Tory Horton (+410, FanDuel)
If we’re thinking Horton could find himself with a few targets down field, why not play him to find the end zone at a long-shot price? Especially since six of his 18 career catches have gone for a touchdown.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
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