Some weeks we get marquee matchups sneaking in value on games you were already going to watch, and some weeks we head over to East Carolina for value.
This week, that means a wager involving a Temple team that just gave up 38 to Charlotte, and going under against an Oregon State team whose last three games had point totals of 82, 80 and 78.
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Here are two of my favorite Week 9 college football wagers.
Temple at East Carolina (-6.5, 49.5)
Charlotte came to Philadelphia two weeks ago at 0-6, having been outscored 109-18 in its previous two games, and put up 38 points on Temple (2-5).
Owls head coach K.C. Keeler didn’t dress it up. “That was the single most embarrassing game I’ve ever coached,” he said, and by Tuesday the defensive line coach was gone, the defensive coordinator had been moved to coaching safeties and Henry Baker was calling the defense. That’s the side of this I’m betting on.
Temple’s defense ranks No. 130 (of 138) on our board, it has given up 72 points in its last two games and Keeler’s own scouting report this week was blunt: “We don’t tackle very well. The lack of communication is staggering.” A bye week and a new play-caller might fix some of that, but it’s rarely fixed in one game. The other side is why this isn’t a 56 already.
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East Carolina (3-4) ranks No. 117 in offense on our board, and the Pirates have changed quarterbacks twice this season, but they just put 34 on Memphis.
The Pirates plays at the ninth-fastest tempo in the country on our board, so there are plenty of snaps to go around, and RB TJ Engleman Jr. is averaging 6.0 yards a carry. Temple is a runnning team as well, averaging 202 rushing yards a game, and QB Ajani Sheppard has eight touchdown passes without an interception. The Owls put up 455 yards against Charlotte and 437 at UConn, and their last two games had 69 and 54 total points.
We make it East Carolina 31, Temple 25, opening value on the over in this matchup.
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Bet: Over 49.5 (-110)
Oregon State (-5.5, 57.5) at Fresno State
This number makes sense if you only watched the highlights. Oregon State (5-2) has won five straight, QB Braden Atkinson leads the country with 2,604 passing yards and has gone over 300 in seven straight games, and Jesse Legree was the first receiver in the country to 1,000 yards. The last three Beavers games finished at 82, 80 and 78 points. DraftKings opened this total at 56.5 and it’s up to 57.5.
Now check the opponents: Those three games were against Colorado State, San Diego State and Washington State, whose defenses rank 137th, 115th and 99th on our board, and the other two wins came against FCS Montana and a UTEP defense ranked 135th. Against the two real defenses on the schedule — Houston at No. 19 and Texas Tech at No. 27 — the Beavers scored 20 and 24 points.
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Fresno State’s defense we rank 51st — it’s the best one Oregon State has seen since Texas Tech came to Corvallis in September.
Fresno State (4-3) is the other half of this under play, and it’s coming off a bye after two straight losses. The Bulldogs rank No. 89 in offense and No. 124 in tempo on our board, which means fewer possessions and shorter games. Their last one was a 26-23 loss at San Diego State in which QB Jayden Mandal threw for 141 yards and was sacked six times, and after the Aztecs kicked a 53-yard field goal with 57 seconds left, the Fresno State offense managed 3 yards on four plays and turned it over on downs.
Matt Entz knows what’s coming. “Explosive, pass-first kind of mentality,” he said describing the Beavers this week. “We need to do a really good job of trying to keep them behind the chains.”
His defense had six sacks and two forced fumbles against San Diego State, so that’s not an empty plan. Then there’s the weather. The National Weather Service has rain likely in Fresno Saturday night: a 70% chance with a low around 53, for an 8 p.m. local kick on USA Network. That’s a pass-first offense throwing in the rain against the best defense it has faced since September, with a slow-tempo offense on the other sideline.
We make it Oregon State 29, Fresno State 24 in what could be the most contrarian spot on the Week 9 slate, fading Oregon State’s offense.
Bet: Under 57.5 (+100)
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