In fantasy football, you have to look back to move forward. Fantasy points are the goal, but how a player gets there is the key. Analyst Joel Smyth breaks down 8 numbers to know from Week 5 in order to win your matchup in Week 6 and beyond.
31.8%
Targets per route for Mike Evans this season, second among wide receivers to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. With six wideouts now injured in San Francisco, it’s up to Evans (and I guess Brandin Cooks?) to carry the load for the 49ers. When healthy, Evans has been everything the 49ers were looking for. He has five red-zone receptions (third among WR) and seven explosive plays (fourth among WR). He is somewhat limited in routes as a whole, but when he’s on the field, he’s the clear No. 1 WR in a top offense. Brock Purdy playing extremely well this season is a cherry on top.
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20
Targets for Malik Nabers versus Washington. Jameis Winston has been a gem for fantasy receivers in the past, and has been the last two weeks for Nabers. It was against the Commanders secondary, and on a week-high 84 offensive plays, but 20 targets is 20 targets. After the first game and a half together, Nabers has become the clear focus for Winston and the offense, with a 39% first-read target share the last two weeks. Winston has thrown to his first read 75% of the time this season, the third-highest rate in the NFL, making the volume more consistent and trustworthy going forward. The same could be said for TE Isaiah Likely, who has a 31% first-read target share since Week 2. The Giants will match up against the Saints next week before a tougher part of the schedule.
83%
Snaps for Rhamondre Stevenson after TreVeyon Henderson went down with an ankle injury. Bell-cow Stevenson returned Sunday when his team needed him, posting his second straight 15+ fantasy point day. More importantly, the Patriots offense seems to be back. As a red-zone back, Stevenson’s value truly comes out when Drake Maye is playing like himself. Henderson’s injury could not only lead to his absence, but a slow return while giving Stevenson the opportunity to show he should still be the 1A of the offense. The schedule is looking real nice as well, with the following games leading up to the bye: Jets, Bears, Dolphins, Packers and Lions.
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-1
Yards before contact for Bhayshul Tuten Sunday morning. The role continues to grow, amassing 22 of the 24 Jaguars’ RB carries, including the early-down passing role. The matchup in the trenches proved to be too much. Jacksonville had three plays from the one-yard line and couldn’t capitalize, were destroyed up front by Jalen Carter specifically and Tuten had to grind out 73 rushing yards after contact to reach double-digit fantasy points. As part of a top-10 scoring offense, if Tuten continues to control the Jaguars backfield, he’ll put together some monster games against easier matchups. Next week, however, is against the Texans, right before a Week 7 bye, frustrating luck for a player playing so well.
0/5
Games in which Christian McCaffrey has 20+ touches this season. It’s not the end of the world, but it is a managing expectations alert. McCaffrey had 20+ touches in 13 of his 16 games last season, finishing the year with the top fantasy RB volume by a mile. This season, he’s been a little more in “LeBron James load management” mode. Kaelon Black gets a portion of the red-zone work and CMC’s receiving has been below average compared to his past seasons. The positive now. The goal line is his; even when Black’s got the ball down there, here comes McCaffrey to punch it in. He’s had all eight goal-line carries to begin the year. Second, although targets are down, there’s a good shot a big target day is coming, as Black has only two targets to McCaffrey’s 25. It may not be fantasy perfection, but McCaffrey should still finish as a top-10 RB with great week-to-week consistency.
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1
Red-zone targets this season for DK Metcalf. Aaron Rodgers has thrown 18 of them, two for touchdowns to Pat Freiermuth on Sunday. Will it change? Somewhat. Last season Metcalf was second in red-zone targets to Kenny Gainwell, with three tight ends very close behind. Pittsburgh throws at the goal line a lot, but with Rodgers it has consistently been to running backs and tight ends, as they’ve accounted for 62% of targets in the red zone since 2025. Metcalf still had 13 red-zone targets last year, but without consistency in between the 20s, the lack of touchdowns has become more of a problem.
13%
Target share for Harold Fannin Jr. on Sunday, a season low. As a rookie breakout in 2025, Fannin ended his season with an impressive 10 consecutive games with a 20% target share or higher. Through five games this season, he’s only hit that mark in two of them. Even with a surprisingly competent offense, Fannin hasn’t been able to get consistent production with Deshaun Watson at QB. He’s been a checkdown option at best, with zero designed targets on the season and only three red-zone targets. However, all three of those targets have gone for scores, and Fannin’s yards after catch ability has been just as good. The issue isn’t talent, rather his role. He’s far from the focal point and should be treated as such until something changes.
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5
Touches for Alvin Kamara in Week 5. After a two-TD game following the injury of Travis Etienne Jr., Kamara fell down to Earth even harder than the Saints offense. Tyler Shough didn’t fare well against the Vikings defense, but Kamara’s role was the bigger issue. Kendre Miller controlled the ground attack, handling all four red-zone carries, and CJ Donaldson out-snapped Kamara 18 to 12. Even when in on passing downs, Kamara was forced to stay in to block against Minnesota’s blitz. He’ll have more targets in the future, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to warrant a starting spot.
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