Brock Purdy tops Patrick Mahomes in ESPN’s MVP rankings with rare Peyton Manning feat originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
Brock Purdy has given the San Francisco 49ers something even more valuable than a few spectacular throws through the opening month of the season: almost no wasted possessions. That combination of big plays and remarkably few mistakes has pushed him to the top of ESPN analyst Bill Barnwell’s quarter-season MVP rankings, ahead of Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes.
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In his assessment of the NFL’s leading award candidates through Week 4, Barnwell placed Purdy first while making a clear distinction: These are his choices based on performance so far, rather than predictions of who will collect the trophies after the season.
For Purdy, the argument starts with a striking observation.
“Through four games, there’s Purdy and then there’s everybody else,” Barnwell wrote.
Purdy’s clean start brings a Peyton Manning comparison
According to Barnwell, Purdy became the first quarterback since Manning in 2004 to attempt at least 50 passes through the first quarter of a season without taking a sack.
That is a meaningful achievement because sacks can erase the value of an otherwise productive passing series. Purdy has also avoided fumbling and has not thrown another interception since his lone pick in San Francisco’s season-opening victory over the Rams. He is doing considerably more than protecting the football, however.
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Barnwell reported that Purdy leads the NFL with an 89.7 Total QBR, the fifth-best mark through four weeks since 2007. Three quarterbacks with higher starts in that span, Tom Brady in 2007, Manning in 2013 and Aaron Rodgers in 2020, went on to win MVP.
That history gives Purdy’s opening month some impressive company, even with most of the season still ahead.
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Why Barnwell gives Purdy the edge over Mahomes
Barnwell placed Lawrence second and Prescott third, with Mahomes just outside the top three in fourth.
Purdy’s efficiency helps explain the separation. He is averaging 9.2 yards per dropback, according to ESPN’s analysis, with Lamar Jackson the only quarterback within a yard of that figure. Barnwell also credited Purdy with producing successful plays on nearly 61% of his dropbacks, the strongest four-week start by that measure in the NFL Next Gen Stats era.
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Kyle Shanahan’s offense and San Francisco’s talented playmakers deserve credit. Still, Barnwell noted that Purdy has maintained that production amid changing availability at receiver and a running game ranked 16th in expected points added per designed rush.
Four games cannot settle an MVP race. They can establish the standard everyone else has to chase.
Through the opening month, Barnwell’s choice is Purdy.
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